Predictions and Updates

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Pre-season Conference rankings are coming soon! I have developed what I think to be quite a scientific method for ranking teams, and while I don’t want to give it completely away, I’ll let you in on some of the factors. There are, of course, the obvious considerations – offence, defence, and goaltending – but there is much more to be measured. It doesn’t suffice to simply compare team rosters in those three categories [...]

How well a team played in the previous season is usually an important consideration, and how they’ve changed in the off-season can be even more significant. It’s always important to look at the quality of a team’s youth and prospects – while it may not seem necessary for the current season, injuries and fatigue will always be a part of the game, and they will both often result in the need for teams to call up fresh skaters, sometimes early in the season. At the same time, the quality of a team’s experience cannot be undervalued – the balance of youth and experience on a team is something you can’t ignore when ranking them.

You’ve also got divisional play. Each team plays more than one quarter of their games – 24 to be exact – against only four of the other 29 teams. A certain team may be good, but if their four division rivals are all better, then they’re going to be losing games. There are also travel considerations. Some teams travel more than others do, but this changes each season. You might be tempted to think that because Team A travels more than Team B, the strain will be tougher on Team A. But if Team A is actually travelling 4000 miles less than they did last season, while Team B will be travelling 4000 more…you get the picture. For a great resource to compare team travel, check this out: How Much Does Your Favorite Team Travel?


I tend to give important NHL updates much quicker on twitter, and wait a while to analyze the events over here. So if you’re in need of quick updates, be sure to follow here: LindHockeyFile on Twitter – just don’t forget to come back here for the analysis. For a rundown of some of the bigger stories:

Patrick Kane was able to arrange a plea bargain, whereby the larger charge of felony robbery was dropped. Now, my understanding of the way a plea deal works is that you either plead guilty for a reduced sentence, or you plead guilty to lesser charges and have the larger charges dropped. But the day after having the felony robbery charge dropped, Patrick Kane proceeded to plead not guilty to the misdemeanour robbery and theft charges. Some people think it’s all over, but I have doubts about this one…

Dany Heatley finally addressed the media Friday, via telephone conference. He reiterated his desire to be traded, but still left fans hanging as to why, citing a perceived “diminished role on the team”. He did say, however, that he was prepared to report to camp if a trade wasn’t made by that time. Don’t expect it to happen. You can check out the press conference here: Heatley Conference Call.


There have also been updates here! Aside from changing the layout to feature the expandable articles, Twitter updates are now displayed on the sidebar and updated automatically, and the site log and disclaimer have both been updated (you can find them at the bottom of either column). Social bookmark buttons have been added for Delicious, Facebook, StumbleUpon, and Technorati, so give them a click if you’re on those networks! Also, a pretty nifty animated 3D tag cloud has been added, clicking the tags allows you to find the topics that interest you most.

And more is coming! There will soon be a contact form on the page, whereby registration for the Lind File Hockey Pool will take place. I can’t give out too many details yet, but the pool will be hosted on ESPN, so make sure to sign up for a free account at ESPN Fantasy Hockey. The contact form can also be used to ask me your fantasy questions, which I will e-mail you answers to and post in fantasy mailbags. I’ve also got plans to add games, videos, and a chat system – all hopefully before the season begins!

- Josh Lind

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Uncertain Times

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With little more than a month and a half remaining until the regular season opens, it may seem to some like the NHL is on the brink of turmoil. In the midst of ownership crises, teams up for sale, more than a few decent free agents still left unsigned, player arrests over the summer, noticeable loss of talent to the KHL, teams perilously close to the cap ceiling – and others just as close to the cap floor, it can seem a little disheartening. But rest assured, hockey faithful – when that first puck drops October 1st, some of these issues will be the furthest from our minds [...]

As of this writing, two NHLers could be facing charges in incidents that were made public. Alexandre Burrows of the Vancouver Canucks is reported to have high-sticked an opponent during a ball hockey match, while Patrick Kane of the Chicago Blackhawks will have a jury decide his fate concerning the taxi episode. While both accounts merit attention, the general consensus is that both players will start the seasons with their team, relatively unscathed.

As far as the ownership issue in Tampa Bay is concerned, it may not be as bad as it looks. Majority owners Len Barrie and Oren Koules will each have a chance to buy the other out. Should they both fail, the names of a few potential buyers have already popped out – a list that includes Hall of Famer Phil Esposito. Still, that leaves sales to be made for the Florida Panthers, Montreal Canadiens (still not finalized), Nashville Predators (minority sale), and – who could forget to mention – the Phoenix Coyotes. Will Jim Balsillie finally succeed in his bid to bring another team to Canada?

Every summer, a few free agents are surprisingly left unsigned. And a handful of players leave the NHL each summer, either to retire or to play in other leagues. But for the first time, there is a league that stands as a legitimate threat to the NHL – the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL). This will be the issue that sticks, and the plethora of financial and cap-related negotiations that are needed to right the issue could be a heavy weight indeed.

That’s not to say there’s nothing else to talk about. Jeremy Roenick and Teppo Numminen have both retired, after 18 and 20 NHL seasons respectively. Will either of Roenick or Numminen join fellow 2009 retiree Joe Sakic in the Hall of Fame? It’s not all about retirements either – 40 year old Brendan Shanahan will play in his 22nd NHL season after signing a deal with the New Jersey Devils.

And trade rumours are still aplenty as well. The Dany Heatley saga still hasn’t met its end. Reports are just about split between him going to either San Jose, Minnesota, Buffalo, New York (Rangers), or remaining a Senator. Word is that the Toronto Maple Leafs will be starting the season with Tomas Kaberle, but the Boston Bruins are still looking to trade Phil Kessel. The Atlanta Thrashers are looking to add a piece to their roster (and coax Ilya Kovalchuk into sticking around – he’s a UFA next summer), so Kessel could be a nice fit there. The Oilers are still trying to land an offensive winger, and trying once again for Michael Nylander has been discussed. Alex Tanguay is also still available, but reported to be close to a deal with either the Tampa Bay Lightning or Minnesota Wild. Will any of these deals come to fruition? Let me know what you think in the comments section!

- Josh Lind

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Christmas in July!

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Free agent frenzy got off to a quick start Wednesday, July 1st, but there was also some movement the day before. The Montreal Canadiens made a big trade with the New York Rangers that sent center Scott Gomez to the Habs, and winger Christopher Higgins to the Blueshirts. Some other players were involved in the deal, most notably prospect Ryan McDonagh who also ended up in New York. Gomez is a proven set-up man; he’s had 40+ assists in all but one of his seasons, and has registered 50+ four times. Higgins has reached the 20-goal plateau in three of his four seasons, and probably would have reached 20 last season had he not missed 25 games due to groin and hand injuries [...]

Also Tuesday, the Calgary Flames got defenseman Jay Bouwmeester signed to a five-year deal, after trading for his rights from the Florida Panthers on draft day. The deal gives the Flames one of the best defensive corps in the league.

Come Wednesday, and the Montreal Canadiens were even more active. They signed Brian Gionta who played very well with Scott Gomez in New Jersey, winning a Stanley Cup together in 2002/03. It will be interesting, to say the least, to see what they can do together in Montreal. The Habs also grabbed another high scoring forward, Mike Cammalleri, and inked him to a five-year deal worth $30 million. But they didn’t stop there; GM Bob Gainey also picked up defensemen Jaroslav Spacek and Hal Gill. The Canadiens have tended qualifying returning offers to Tomas Plekanec, Matt D’Agostini, Kyle Chipchura, and Guillaume Latendresse, but it looks as if Alexei Kovalev, Alex Tanguay, Saku Koivu, and Matthieu Schneider are all on their way out.

The Chicago Blackhawks also made big news, signing prolific goal scorer Marian Hossa to a huge 12-year deal. Some have expressed concern that the Hawks will be in trouble next year when they have to sign Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, especially with the salary cap set to go down, but it looks as if Chicago is in it to try and win the Stanley Cup this season, regardless of the obstacles. With the roster they have now, they look to be in a position to do just that. If the Blackhawks want to keep Hossa, Kane, and Toews for 2010/11, I’d assume the player that will have to go would be defenseman Brain Campbell and his $7 million salary…
The Hawks also picked up forwards Tomas Kopecky and John Madden, who are each capable of being 20-goal scorers.

The Atlanta Thrashers signed the commanding forward Nik Antropov to a four-year deal, and also picked up another ex-Leaf, Pavel Kubina, in a trade that sent Garnet Exelby and Colin Stuart to Toronto. Antropov should be a nice fit with star winger Ilya Kovalchuk. With Brian Little, Tobias Enstrom, Zach Bogosian, and this year’s pick Evander Kane, Atlanta has a lot of promising youth to work with as well. Whether or not it will be enough to turn last year’s disappointing season around, however remains to be seen.

The New York Rangers signed flashy winger Marian Gaborik to a five-year deal, with the hope that he stays healthier than he did in Minnesota. For their part, the Wild signed another injury-prone player in Martin Havlat, inking him to a six-year deal. Havlat played in 81 games last season with the Blackhawks – his longest season yet – here’s to hoping he stays healthy as well!

The Washington Capitals signed Mike Knuble, a perennial 20-goal scorer over the last seven years, who’s also reached 30 twice. Knuble is tough in the corners and should be a great playmaker for two-time league MVP Alexander Ovechkin.

The Tampa Bay Lightning picked up defenseman Mattias Ohlund, the Phoenix Coyotes got defenseman Adrian Aucoin, and the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Mike Komisarek from the rival Montreal Canadiens.

The Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche tried to address their goaltending issues, picking up Nikolai Khabibulin and Craig Anderson respectively.

Earlier this afternoon, the Vancouver Canucks signed Mikael Samuelsson from the Red Wings. Also of note, the Sedins twins will be staying in Vancouver, as they signed five-year contracts worth $30.5 million each.

Other notable players who stayed with the same teams were Tim Thomas (Boston), Doug Weight (Islanders), Johan Franzen (Detroit), Keith Tkachuk (St. Louis), Bill Guerin (Pittsburgh), Rob Blake (San Jose), David Booth (Florida), Scott Niedermayer (Anaheim), Erik Cole (Carolina), and Mikhail Grabovski (Toronto).

- Josh Lind

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