Fantasy Hockey Mondays: Week Five

So it turns out this Steven Stamkos kid is pretty good at hockey. He seems to be scoring a lot of points. My advice: you should try to pick him up in your fantasy pool.

I kid, of course, but it's still astounding the run that Stamkos is on to start the season, as he picked up another 4 goals and 2 assists this week. At 20 years old, he's leading the league in goals, points, powerplay points, and game-winning goals. He's on pace for 72 goals and 135 points. I was incredibly lucky to be picking third overall in all three of my pools and was able to select Stamkos after the consensus first two picks of Ovechkin and Crosby. And to think, I almost decided to draft Nicklas Backstrom instead. That would have been very, very stupid.

That said, Stamkos will need to shoulder even more of the offensive load, as Vincent Lecavalier, who has 9 points in 14 games, will be out for at least a month. Sure, he's not the same player who scored 52 goals in 2006-07, but his absence will still put more pressure on the first line, especially Stamkos and Martin St. Louis. I also have St. Louis in two of my pools, who has been outstanding as well, with 19 points in 17 games. I am confident they will be able to keep rolling, but I'm not sure whether the same could be said for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Still, the standings don't affect my fantasy teams.

Pool One - Office Pool

Team: Aldergrove Awesome

Week Five Result: 7-5-1 Win

With two wins in a row, I can almost start getting cocky about the Awesome. At least, until I remember that they're still below .500 and in 7th out of 12 teams. Ugh. As per usual, Stamkos and St. Louis led the way, with 5 goals and 6 assists between them. Niclas Bergfors was also a solid performer, with a goal and 3 assists. Even my two New Jersey Devils players started producing, with 2 goals and an assist from Jason Arnott and 1 goal, 1 assist, and 17 penalty minutes from David Clarkson.

More importantly, Jonas Hiller picked this week to be fantastic and my opponent's top goaltender, Jaroslav Halak, picked this week to be terrible. That gave me 3 wins in the goaltending statistics alone. Even Chris Mason's brutal performance this week wasn't enough to cost me, as Ilya Bryzgalov was reasonable enough to balance everything out.

Pool Two - Nucks Misconduct

Team: I Miss Kyle Wellwood

Week Five Result: 7-2-1 Win

There's nothing like walloping a beat-up team, right every-team-that-has-played-the-Islanders? My opponent, Twincest, had two players eligible for Injured Reserve, Michael Leighton and Simon Gagne, and an additional two players who were Day-to-Day, Drew Stafford and Craig Rivet, and didn't play this week. In a 20-team league like this one, that many injuries can decimate a team as there are essentially no decent replacements available via free agency.

I won every category except penalty minutes and, oddly enough, wins. Stamkos and Ryan Kesler had 4 goals each, Tobias Enstrom added 4 assists, and both Bergfors and Plekanec had a goal and 3 assists each. Plekanec actually had a better week than that putting up a goal and 6 assists in three games, but two of those games fell on days when I had Kesler and Stamkos in the lineup instead.

It was an odd week for my goalies, however, as I didn't get any wins. Dwayne Roloson was reasonable enough, with a 2.28 GAA and a .919 SV%, but didn't get any goal support. Chris Mason, on the other hand, was awful, posting a 9.31 GAA and a .765 SV%. Only one goaltender had a worse performance last week; fortunately, he played for my opponent. Nikolai Khabibulin had a 10.70 GAA and a .692 SV%, destroying the excellent stats posted by his other goaltender, Jonathan Quick. So, with a cumulative 3.82 GAA and an .875 SV%, I still won those categories.

Pool Three - Friends Pool

Team: Emily Carr Echidnas

Week Five Result: 6-3-1 Win

Yes, a victory in every pool this week. This win lifts the Echidnas out of the basement into a lofty 8th place out of 10 teams. Huzzah!

This match-up was skaters versus goaltenders, as I won every skating category and my opponent, Trentons Finest, won every goaltending category except for shutouts. Again, Stamkos and St. Louis were the top performers, with excellent weeks from Bergfors, Plekanec, and Dustin Byfuglien. I'm still baffled that Byfuglien was still available in free agency two weeks ago. He's currently tied for first in goalscoring for defenseman and is third in points behind Kris Letang and Nicklas Lidstrom. Combine that with 27 penalty minutes and he is fantasy gold.

As for goaltending, it appears that Brent Johnson waited until I acquired him to start being terrible. He and Miikka Kiprusoff were just plain awful last week and cost me the goaltending categories. I'm almost at the point where I feel the need to blow up my goaltending, trade Kiprusoff along with a forward for a goaltender who might actually win a few games. I'm ecstatic that the Flames are terrible this year, but it's killing Kiprusoff's fantasy value.

Fantasy Hockey: I Miss Kyle Wellwood

Apparently, I hate having free time, as I have signed myself up for three separate fantasy hockey leagues. This isn't because I'm good at fantasy hockey and none of them are for money. It's because I enjoy being locked into the NHL season and it helps me to pay attention to what is going on around the league as opposed to just the Canucks. It's also nice to have a player or two to cheer for when I'm watching a game that doesn't involve the Canucks.

Unfortunately, the first of the drafts snuck up on me when I wasn't paying attention. I joined one of the Nucks Misconduct leagues with 19 other teams, a bigger league than I'm used to. The live draft was yesterday and I was only able to be there for the first three picks and the last five, depending on my pre-draft rankings for the rest. The result was...mixed. Here's my team: I Miss Kyle Wellwood.

Draft results:

1. (3) Steven Stamkos - C

In the first round, I had the third pick, which is one of my least favorite places to pick. As expected, Ovechkin and Crosby when one and two, leaving me with a difficult choice: do I hope that Stamkos continues his success from last year (especially on the powerplay), go with the more proven Backstrom (though he scores fewer goals), take a chance on Malkin playing a full season (with his high PIM to go with it) or solidify my goaltending with Luongo or Miller? Obviously, I went with Stamkos. Goals are harder to come by than a lot of other stats and he led the NHL in powerplay points last season.

2. (38) Ryan Kesler - C

I hate taking two centres with my first two picks as centre is the deepest position in fantasy hockey, but the combination of points, penalty minutes, and powerplay points makes Kesler a decent bet. Also, I'm a total homer and have a massive man-crush on the guy. I try to divest myself of my emotions on draft day, but it never works.

3. (43) Dan Boyle - D

I'm very happy I got Boyle at this position in the draft, as he's a legitimate powerplay quarterback who will put up plenty of points for me, especially goals. He had a reasonable number of penalty minutes last year, so he'll chip in from time to time on that stat.

4. (78) Tomas Plekanec - C

Here's where the auto-picking takes over and, of course, it's the first pick I'm not happy with. Since I already have two great centres, the last thing I want is another one before I have a single winger. Plekanec is also a risky proposition, as he jumped from 39 points to 70 last year and I'm skeptical he can continue to produce at that level. That said, he's consistently scored 20+ goals over the last 4 seasons and he's playing with a legitimate sniper in Cammalleri, so his assist totals may be alright. But ultimately I may end up trying to swing a trade for a winger before the season starts.

5. (83) Alex Burrows - LW

This pick I don't mind at all. Yes, he's starting the season injured, but he'll likely slot in with the Sedins right away when he gets back, which is fantasy gold. If not, he'll be paired with Kesler, which is also not a bad thing. Burrows puts up goals and penalty minutes in abundance and is also likely to have a high +/-. He won't do anything on the powerplay, but at this point in the draft, that's a reasonable tradeoff.

6. (118) Chris Mason - G

My first goalie, and even though he plays for Atlanta now, I'm reasonably happy with this pick. He'll get plenty of starts because Ondrej Pavelec is incredibly unreliable (I should know, I had him in a pool last year), and he'll be reasonably consistent. If I hadn't been auto-picking, I would have tried to pick up a goalie in the 4th round in place of Plekanec, but I'll take Mason. Atlanta will hopefully win a few more games this season.

7. (123) Tobias Enstrom - D

For my second defenceman, I get a decent powerplay performer who will provide plenty of assists, but not much else. He was 7th in the league among defencemen for points last season, which is nice, and at his age he can be reasonably expected to improve.

8. (158) Niclas Bergfors - RW

Eighth round and I'm just getting my first right winger. Yikes. And he's a Thrasher. Double-yikes. He's a great young player and he'll get plenty of playing time in Atlanta, but this pick is still a bit of a risk. Hopefully it will pay off.

9. (163) Jonathan Bernier - G

Another risky pick, but one I feel pretty good about. I am confident that Bernier will battle with Quick for the starting spot with the Kings and I am confident that Bernier will win that battle. By the end of the season, this pick will look like the steal of the draft. In three games last season, he posted a .967 save percentage and a 1.30 GAA. Bernier will get plenty of wins in LA and he'll post a better save percentage and GAA than Quick while doing it.

10. (198) Devin Setoguchi - RW

I'm hoping that last year was an aberration and Setoguchi will have a bounce-back season. If he does, this will be a great pick. If he stumbles into Cheechoo territory, then he'll be hitting the waiver wire.

11. (203) Marek Zidlicky - D

This was when I got back online and looked to fill in some vacant roster spots. Zidlicky had a terrible +/- last season, but he got a lot of points on the powerplay and will give me a good number of assists. At this point, that's about all I can hope for.

12. (238) Vinny Prospal - LW

What can I say? I needed another left-winger and Prospal certainly is a left-winger. Actually, that's not even true: he's listed as a centre on NHL.com. In any case, he scored 20 goals last year and was decent on the powerplay so I can't complain.

13. (243) Steve Ott - C

Yes, another centre. He racks up the penalty minutes but also scored 22 goals last season. None of that will matter, of course, as he won't get into my lineup with Stamkos, Kesler, and Plekanec in front of him. I really need to trade Plekanec.

14. (278) Fedor Tyutin - D

One more defenceman, one more powerplay quarterback. He was the best of what was left, though I'm now wondering if I should have gone for a goon who would rack up penalty minutes instead. We'll see what the waiver wire has to offer.

15. (283) Bill Guerin - RW

This is a risk, but not a big one as there are players available on the waiver wire to replace him if he doesn't stick with the Flyers. But with the Flyers trading Gagne away and Zherdev being a bit of a question mark, I think the Flyers sign him as insurance. Yes, he's old, but he's been remarkably consistent. I think he can be successful with that group of forwards.

16. (318) Dwayne Roloson - G

Is this the year that DiPietro stays healthy? My guess is no, which means Roloson will get the bulk of the starts. I think the Islanders will be a better team this year, which means Roloson will get a few more wins. Is that a foolish thought? Yes, but again, in this round of a draft with this many teams, it's slim-pickings.

So that's team one, I Miss Kyle Wellwood. I like some parts of this team and hate other parts. I really wish I had been able to live draft the whole thing, because there's no way I would have taken another centre in the fourth round. Oh well, I still have two more teams in smaller leagues: the Emily Carr Echidnas and the Aldergrove Awesome.

For those who get horribly bored listening to people talk about their fantasy hockey teams (I know I do), I'll try to keep updates to a minimum, perhaps once a month unless something momentous happens.

Western Conference Rankings

(Updated - September 30, 2009)
The Western Conference rankings are in, and the Eastern Conference picks have been updated. I missed a calculation when I first published the East, a mistake that had overvalued the Maple Leafs and Devils, while undervaluing the Thrashers. In any case, the final results are now in for both Conferences. Again, teams are divided up into four different groups; Tier I - The Leaders, Tier II - The Contenders, Tier III - The Disruptors, and Tier IV - The Scavengers [...]

The Leaders are teams who are well balanced, have had recent success, and are poised to lead their respective divisions. The Contenders are teams who should push for the top, but may have a few question marks to satisfy before being promoted. The Disruptors are those teams who have had solid rosters, and could upset some of the higher-ranked teams, but have a lot left to prove and will need to to fight out each other to make the post-season. As for The Scavengers, they are the teams who will try to pick up wins however they can, but will likely stay out of the Playoff picture for most of the season.

Tier I - The Leaders
Detroit Red Wings
Vancouver Canucks
San Jose Sharks

Tier II - The Contenders
Chicago Blackhawks
St. Louis Blues
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames

Tier III - The Disruptors
Columbus Blue Jackets
Minnesota Wild
Dallas Stars
Nashville Predators

Tier IV - The Scavengers
Los Angeles Kings
Edmonton Oilers
Phoenix Coyotes
Colorado Avalanche

Again, let me have it in the comments section if you disagree. I'll be reviewing each Division in-depth soon, and I'll also post up some general trends to watch for during the year. I will release updated power rankings for both Conferences at the quarter points throughout the season. Remember - you can send me fantasy questions through the contact form on the sidebar, and follow LindHockeyFile on Twitter for quick updates!

- Josh Lind

Eastern Conference Rankings

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(Updated - October 1, 2009)
With only two weeks remaining until the 2009-10 regular season opens, it's high time for Conference rankings. And yet, as DGB successfully pointed out in his article about NHL Predictions, an 82-game NHL season is almost impossible to predict with any sort of accuracy. So many factors are involved, and so much can change. Injuries, trades, breakouts, and slumps are all next to impossible to control for, and, unless you have an inside with all 30 teams, it's tough to know what the locker room chemistry is like around the league. With that in mind, I have decided to rank the teams in terms of classes, or tiers [...]

Each Conference is divided up into four different groups; Tier I - The Leaders, Tier II - The Contenders, Tier III - The Disruptors, and Tier IV - The Scavengers. The Leaders are teams who are well balanced, have had recent success, and are poised to lead their respective divisions. The Contenders are teams who should push for the top, but may have a few question marks to satisfy before being promoted. The Disruptors are those teams who have had solid rosters, and could upset some of the higher-ranked teams, but have a lot left to prove and will need to to fight out each other to make the post-season. As for The Scavengers, they are the teams who will try to pick up wins however they can, but will likely stay out of the Playoff picture for most of the season. So, without further ado:

Tier I - The Leaders
Boston Bruins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals

Tier II - The Contenders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Ottawa Senators
Carolina Hurricanes

Tier III - The Disruptors
Atlanta Thrashers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Montreal Canadiens
Tampa Bay Lightning

Tier IV - The Scavengers
New Jersey Devils
Florida Panthers
Buffalo Sabres
New York Islanders

Not happy with your team's ranking? Let me have it in the comments section! Western Conference rankings will be up later in the week, and all of the rankings will be reviewed in depth next week, starting with the Atlantic Division.

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Lind Hockey File Fantasy Pool

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The Lind Hockey File is proud to present our first ever fantasy hockey pool! The pool will be managed using the ESPN system, and will feature a keeper league of 6 teams with weekly head-to-head matchups in different stat categories. You will select 6 forwards (2C, 2LW, 2RW), 4 defensemen, and 2 goalies. There are also 5 bench spots you can use to make daily roster moves with. There will be no game limits to worry about, and waiver wire transactions are immediate [...]

Each week, your team will match-up against another team and your skaters will be counted for Goals, Assists, Plus/Minus, Special Teams Points, Game-Winning Goals, Faceoffs Won, Average Time on Ice, Shots on goal, Hits, Blocked Shots, and Defensemen Points, for a total of 11 stat categories. Goaltenders will compete for Wins, Saves, Shutouts, Goals Against Average, and Save Percentage, for a total of 5 stat categories. This generates a grand total of 16 stat categories, so each week your team will emerge with a combination of 16 wins, ties, or losses. After 26 weeks, the team with the best record becomes League Champion over the summer.

In advance of the 2010-2011 season, you will be given the option to retain 5 of your players, and the rest will be put back into free agency with the new draft prospects. Rosters will be determined via live draft, scheduled for September 8, 2009 at 12:30 PM Eastern Time. You will have 2 minutes (120 seconds) to complete each pick. Do not worry if you cannot make it for that date, as one of the benefits of using ESPN is that they allow you to rank all of your players as soon as you sign up, and then auto draft for you if you aren't around. As a plus, all of your players will already be ranked according to ESPN point predictions - adjusting that list is optional. And yes, trading draft picks is allowed.

So, if you are interested, use the contact form near the bottom of the page to send me an e-mail and let me know you want in. You will receive an invite shortly afterwards. Hurry though - the entire league consists of only 6 teams, and only 5 more remain!

- Josh Lind

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Predictions and Updates

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Pre-season Conference rankings are coming soon! I have developed what I think to be quite a scientific method for ranking teams, and while I don’t want to give it completely away, I’ll let you in on some of the factors. There are, of course, the obvious considerations – offence, defence, and goaltending – but there is much more to be measured. It doesn’t suffice to simply compare team rosters in those three categories [...]

How well a team played in the previous season is usually an important consideration, and how they’ve changed in the off-season can be even more significant. It’s always important to look at the quality of a team’s youth and prospects – while it may not seem necessary for the current season, injuries and fatigue will always be a part of the game, and they will both often result in the need for teams to call up fresh skaters, sometimes early in the season. At the same time, the quality of a team’s experience cannot be undervalued – the balance of youth and experience on a team is something you can’t ignore when ranking them.

You’ve also got divisional play. Each team plays more than one quarter of their games – 24 to be exact – against only four of the other 29 teams. A certain team may be good, but if their four division rivals are all better, then they’re going to be losing games. There are also travel considerations. Some teams travel more than others do, but this changes each season. You might be tempted to think that because Team A travels more than Team B, the strain will be tougher on Team A. But if Team A is actually travelling 4000 miles less than they did last season, while Team B will be travelling 4000 more…you get the picture. For a great resource to compare team travel, check this out: How Much Does Your Favorite Team Travel?


I tend to give important NHL updates much quicker on twitter, and wait a while to analyze the events over here. So if you’re in need of quick updates, be sure to follow here: LindHockeyFile on Twitter – just don’t forget to come back here for the analysis. For a rundown of some of the bigger stories:

Patrick Kane was able to arrange a plea bargain, whereby the larger charge of felony robbery was dropped. Now, my understanding of the way a plea deal works is that you either plead guilty for a reduced sentence, or you plead guilty to lesser charges and have the larger charges dropped. But the day after having the felony robbery charge dropped, Patrick Kane proceeded to plead not guilty to the misdemeanour robbery and theft charges. Some people think it’s all over, but I have doubts about this one…

Dany Heatley finally addressed the media Friday, via telephone conference. He reiterated his desire to be traded, but still left fans hanging as to why, citing a perceived “diminished role on the team”. He did say, however, that he was prepared to report to camp if a trade wasn’t made by that time. Don’t expect it to happen. You can check out the press conference here: Heatley Conference Call.


There have also been updates here! Aside from changing the layout to feature the expandable articles, Twitter updates are now displayed on the sidebar and updated automatically, and the site log and disclaimer have both been updated (you can find them at the bottom of either column). Social bookmark buttons have been added for Delicious, Facebook, StumbleUpon, and Technorati, so give them a click if you’re on those networks! Also, a pretty nifty animated 3D tag cloud has been added, clicking the tags allows you to find the topics that interest you most.

And more is coming! There will soon be a contact form on the page, whereby registration for the Lind File Hockey Pool will take place. I can’t give out too many details yet, but the pool will be hosted on ESPN, so make sure to sign up for a free account at ESPN Fantasy Hockey. The contact form can also be used to ask me your fantasy questions, which I will e-mail you answers to and post in fantasy mailbags. I’ve also got plans to add games, videos, and a chat system – all hopefully before the season begins!

- Josh Lind

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