This is Not "Our Year"

You've got to hand it to a lot of Canuck fans. They really know how to get their hopes up. True, it's not as bad as last year, when the White Towel was already planning the parade route after the first round, but there's still a lot of ridiculous "this is our year" nonsense going around. This is NOT "our year."

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying the Canucks won't win the Stanley Cup. They very well might. And if they do, all the yahoos going around saying "This is our year!" and "It's destiny!" will feel justified in saying so, even though, as some people point out, people say that every year. There's nothing wrong with saying it, except that it will never be true.

Teams don't have years -- they have windows. They'll win the Cup during those windows, or they won't, and then it'll be a while before they're in contention again. Pittsburgh fans thought they were going to make a good run at the Cup this season. If Crosby doesn't return, it's unlikely that they'll be a big playoff force without their two big superstars. Still, you won't expect them to behave like it's the end of the world because this was supposed to be their year. Look at Detroit. After they signed Hossa, they were ordained to win the Cup. They were the best team that had signed the best free agent. They didn't win.

Even the Blackhawks didn't have a year. It's easy to look at their team that year, and all the contracts about to kick in and the salary cap issues, and say, "If it's not this year, it's not going to happen." And that's true -- sort of. Their cup win pushed their bonuses up which created a lot more cap issues, but that's a different argument. The point is, there was never a time when the 'Hawks were guaranteed a Cup. There were several legitimate contenders. The Canucks could have stopped them in the second round if they were more disciplined at home. More importantly, the Blackhawks might not have made it out of the first round. Recall game 5 of the first round between the 'Hawks and the Predators, when the Preds were leading 4-3 with a little over a minute to go. Hossa's hit on Dan Hamhuis could easily have been called a hit from behind -- probably should have -- which means Hossa is assessed a game misconduct and isn't on the ice to score the game-winner. Then the Predators maybe take a 3-2 lead in the series, and who knows what happens after?

Can you imagine how much that would suck? Go for broke and things don't go your way, and then next season all that cap trouble means you dismantle the team anyway? Think about how the Sabres felt after losing in the '07 Eastern Conference Finals. Oh man. Goodbye, Drury. Goodbye, Briere. Soon they'd say goodbye to Campbell as well. Goodbye, window.

There's no such thing as having a year, but the Canucks have something few teams don't -- an almost guaranteed playoff berth before the season begins. On paper, at least, the Canucks can expect to make the postseason. This is a huge boon. It means you can hold on to your core and make tweaks to the team that will have instant payoff, rather than trading for picks and prospects. Once you're guaranteed in the playoffs, you can make moves to improve the team, now, rather than later, and you can do it in the off-season rather than making last-minute deadline deals that may disrupt team chemistry. Thanks to a strong core group of players, Gillis can make moves based on how things play out during the postseason.

In '09, the Canucks weren't fast enough on the back end. Goodbye Ohlund, hello Ehrhoff. In '10, the Nucks' 3rd line wasn't enough of a difference-maker physically, and the team lacked discipline and composure. Goodbye entire third line, hello Malhotra and Torres. Goodbye Shane O'Brien, hello Dan Hamhuis. Also, Gillis had a meeting with the team, forbidding Kesler and others from getting involved between the whistle.

If the Canucks are knocked out this season, many fans will whine about how this was our year, and how much it sucks. Gillis, on the other hand, will walk out of the building with a plan. One that involves addressing a small issue that he pinpointed. But really, while he's always looking to improve, he knows that you can't improve enough to have a guaranteed Cup. You can only stay competitive long enough that things go your way. Eventually, the bounces, the calls, the breaks will go Vancouver's way. Eventually, the right guys will be healthy, the right guys will step up, and things will work out. That may well happen this year.

But it might not. And if it doesn't, that's okay, because this is still our window. The dude at the top has shown some amazing poise and aplomb in working the roster. The Canucks have a real shot to hoist the Cup some time during his tenure. In the meantime, forget the buzz, forget who's the Cup favorite, and forget how often the top team in the league wins it all. Nothing is guaranteed, but this is our window.

Three Things That Happen When You're Good

The Canucks have been good for awhile now, and I think I speak for everyone when I say this is relatively novel territory. It's not usually like this. I'm not used to caring very little how the other Northwest teams fared on a night-to-night basis, or clicking "League" instead of "Division" when I look at the standings. I'm not used to so many amusing quotes coming from such a happy dressing room. I'm definitely not used to hearing fans act reasonable about losses because they know the team is better than one bad game. It's strange.

But, as an amateur sociologist, it's also an opportunity for anecdotal observation. Here are three things I've observed, as a fan of a good team:

Your Prospects Look Pretty Impressive

So far, this season, we've seen some remarkable performances from Cory Schneider, as well as impressive debuts from Sergei Shirokov and Chris Tanev. We've seen first-ever NHL goals from Shirokov, Alex Bolduc, and Mario Bliznak. But, before you start praising the Canucks for the depth of their prospect pool, realize that it's a lot easier to look good when you're playing for a good team. This is no disrespect to these kids, who have shown NHL ability, but they couldn't have asked for a better situation.

The motivation to succeed is greater. They're surrounded by winning, and like the teams that test their ability to play against the best, these prospects, too, can test their ability to play with the best.

Expectations are lower as well. Unlike poor Nazem "Luke Skywalker" Kadri, for instance, who looks like a failure because he wasn't ready to save a team for whom he was the only hope, the Canucks' kids have merely been asked to play to their abilities. Rather than losing confidence because they can't meet impossible expectations, they can gain confidence because management believed they could fit on a talented team. It's one thing to make a bad team--someone had to. It's quite another to make a good, deep team that had other options.

People Rush to Take the Credit

Just like when time traveling, if there's a way, be sure to take the credit.

There are a litany of nuances to being an NHL General Manager but, if you take a step back and look at the big picture, it all boils down to one thing: building a winner. However you do it is fine. Winning covers all manner of sins. That said, if you're presently not building a winner, the only way to cover this sin is to cloak it in past accomplishments and point to past winners you've built.

Problem is, this goes the other way, too. General Managers presiding over losers don't want to take the hit to their reputation, so they blame everything on the past regime. This has put Brian Burke, for example, in a bind. He can't point to the cup-winning Anaheim Ducks, an organization still blaming him for the lack of depth that has them mired in mediocrity. So, instead, he glosses over that and points to the Vancouver Canucks, who are currently winning.

Everyone rushes to take credit for a winning team. It's easy to do in the NHL's slot machine culture among GMs. Nobody gets to hold a position long enough to see it through to the big win, so, inevitably, someone will win with a team primarily constructed of other people's acquisitions. Consider that Dave Nonis, Brian Burke, Mike Gillis, Mike Keenan, and Mike Milbury can all take credit, in some manner, for Roberto Luongo. It hardly means a thing. The reality is that it's an insular, incestuous league, with over 30 general managers who probably played some part, however small, in the construction of the team that wins the cup. But only one GM gets the cup ring, and the rest are just posturing.

Opponents Try Harder

In case you missed the Canucks' shutout loss in Madison Square Garden, let me remind you of what transpired: the Rangers played out of their minds. They battened down the hatches, threw their bodies in front of every shot, finished checks, and battled all night to keep the Canucks to the outside. Then, when they won, they celebrated as though they'd just won the Battle for Middle Earth.

Now, I don't know much about the New York Rangers, but I feel I can safely assume that, when the Associated Press calls your performance "All Heart", it's an indication you don't always play like that.

People can tell you teams treat every team like any team, but we all know that's rubbish. Against the best, you don't play your game; you try to outplay their game. The Rangers were jacked up to face the Canucks, and they went all out to test themselves against the best team in the NHL. This is what happens when you play the best. You put everything you've got into stepping up your game in order to see if you can.

When you're good, every team treats you like a final exam. It can be exhausting. This is why great teams don't stay great for long, and why Detroit's generation-long dominance is so downright impressive. Year after year, the Red Wings have the hardest schedule in the NHL by virtue of simply being the Red Wings.

This is what the Canucks have had to deal with since they vaulted to the top of the NHL standings. Consistently meeting and dealing with the sudden level-up of every opponent is what separates great teams from elite teams. Now that the Canucks are on top, everybody wants to bring them back to earth, and it can be exhausting fighting off the downers. But elite teams are capable.

It remains to be seen if the Canucks are as well.

Forecasting the Canucks' Year-End Awards

Two of these guys are in line for some sweet trophy action.

Having reached the halfway point of the season, now seems a good time to reflect on its first half, and to forecast who might be in line for a year-end trophy. In this post, PITB takes a look at the four major awards, and the leading potential recipients for each.

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Unsung Hero: Jannik Hansen
Has anybody surprised more this season than Jannik Hansen? Not even a lock to make the team, Hansen has established himself as a staple of the Canucks' forward corps, regardless of who he plays with. Hansen has seen time and success on all four lines, and he's seemingly been everywhere at the right time. Remember when the Canucks' third line put up 13 points in four games in late October? Hansen was on that line then. Kesler's eight-game points streak? Hansen was on his wing. Now the fourth line is beginning to make waves. Guess where Hansen's spending a lot of his time?

Hansen is first among Canuck forwards in hits, fourth in team takeaways, and first among wingers in shorthanded time on ice. Apart from the Selke-quality centers, he's the Canucks' best defensive forward, and his ability to force opponents into coughing up the puck is nearly as good as scoring regularly. It just doesn't show up on the statsheet in the same way.

Hansen has managed to make himself invaluable to the team in spite of his inconsistent offense, and even his hands are beginning to show signs of life (like Devon Sawa's hands). He goes into the second half of the season with only 5 goals and 8 assists, but he brings so much else to the table apart that any points he accrues will only be a bonus. That's a great position to be in.

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Best Defenceman: Alex Edler
Skeeter's right when he says that the Canucks don't really have a number one defenseman, but if they had to rank their top four, Alex Edler would top the list. Though he's not quite there yet, he looks to be establishing himself as a bonafide number one. And, though he only averages one measly shift a game more than the other top three guys, it's enough to make him the official big-minute guy.

He's got the all-around potential of a top guy already; Edler's the most complete defender the Canucks have had in a long, long time. He can skate, he can pass, he can block shots (a team-leading 71), he can jump into a rush, he can quarterback a power play, and he can hit (66, good for third on the team). And while some guys might outdo him in one or two categories, he's certainly the best overall.

He's also leading the defense in points. With 25 at the halfway mark, Edler could conceivably hit 50. He'd be the first Canuck to do it since Jyrki Lumme in 1996.

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Most Exciting Player: Ryan Kesler
This might be the only one that isn't even remotely contentious. Ryan Kesler has been remarkable this season, skating and shooting with speed, strength, speed and confidence. And did we mention speed? Kesler flies through the neutral zone with reckless disregard for his own body, gaining the zone with ease and absorbing hits just to make plays. Nobody is more exciting at full speed, save maybe Sonic the Hedgehog and Marty McFly.

Kesler's wrist shot has also become lethal. On more than one occasion, he's blown it by a goaltender who saw it cleanly and simply couldn't stop it. During his eight-game points streak, Kesler could seemingly score from anywhere. Nobody got the crowd more excited when they touched the puck. This one's a no-brainer.

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Most Valuable Player: Daniel Sedin
The Canucks' MVP this season is most certainly one of their top three scorers. With Henrik and Daniel Sedin in 3rd and 4th in NHL scoring, and Ryan Kesler now at a point per game pace as well, there's really no question that nobody else is as valuable as this trio. The question is: who's the most valuable?

Well, Henrik Sedin is the captain. He's the reigning Art Ross and Hart trophy winner and he's having a season that might be better than the one that got him his hardware. Meanwhile, Ryan Kesler is having what some might say is his third consecutive breakout season--first, as a scorer, then as a scoring center, and now as a superstar at the position. Puck Daddy named him the Canucks MVP. John Buccigross called him the best player in the Western Conference. How do you go against either of these guys?

Be Daniel Sedin. Look at his accomplishments. Only two guys in the league have more goals, and their last names are Crosby and Stamkos. That's elite company, and Daniel is an elite goal-scorer. This team lives and dies with the Sedins, and while Henrik is the setup man, Daniel's the finisher, the guy that's got 25 goals--13 of them the first Canuck goal of the game. He's on pace for 50, a landmark even Markus Naslund never reached. And while Henrik jokes that, if he were setting himself up, he'd have 24 too, the truth is that Daniel is insanely skilled and almost never misses a decent scoring opportunity. Nobody finishes a Henrik Sedin setup as beautifully as Daniel Sedin, and when you're the triggerman on the most potent tandem in hockey, you deserve a little love.

Not to mention Daniel never wins anything.


Do you disagree with my choices? I wait for you, in the comments, ready to fight.

An Embarrassment of Riches Makes the Canucks Hard to Shop For

Other General Managers had no idea what to get this guy for Christmas. He's just hard to shop for right now.

You remember a month ago when someone asked you what you wanted for Christmas? Some years, you have the answer right away, but some years, you just don't know. You're perfectly content. You can't think of any glaring need in your life that could be filled, or even anything you'd kinda like to have. Sometimes, you can't, for the life of you, put together a wish list. It sucks, because normally, being happy is a good thing. But now, here are people trying to figure out what to get you and you can't help them out. You become one of those people who's hard to buy for, and everyone hates those people who smugly say "I don't know" whenever asked about their Christmas list. You hate trying to buy for those people. Screw those people. And now, here you are, one of them, because life's going too well for you right now.

Is it too much to ask for a glaring hole in your life?

This is how Mike Gillis must feel around now. With Salo's impending return, the cap situation sort of necessitates a trade. Great news, though! The Canucks have plenty of assets to move around. Gillis is undoubtedly getting calls from around the league, asking, what do you want?

And what answer could he possibly have? No part of the roster really needs help.

The offense is more than complete. The Canucks have eight forwards that can fit into the top 6 -- the obvious Sedins, Burrows and Kesler, plus Raymond, Samuelsson, and now Tambellini and Hansen. Six of those players scored 25+ goals last season. This season the Canucks' offense is even deeper. Samuelsson was playing on the 4th line last game. Cody Hodgson can forget the possibility of a call-up this season. It doesn't matter if he's ready, the Canucks are just too deep.

Even the 4th line is clicking right now. Bolduc isn't a perfect 4th line center, cause there's no such thing -- once you've got a requisite amount of skill, you belong on the 3rd line. Remember that Rick Rypien may be back for the playoffs, and he can do the job. Tanner Glass is a dependable 4th line checker who helps to kill penalties, knows what to do in offensive situations (although he rarely creates them himself), and manages to hit everything in sight. The Canucks won't find a better 4th liner for his price. They're unlikely to find better than Bolduc at his price. Volpatti we can do without, but keep in mind that when the Canucks are healthy, it's Tambellini, or Samuelsson, or Hansen or Torres playing on the 4th line, and all of them can handle the job and more.

But let's ignore all that and imagine there's a magical "perfect" fourth line out there, ready to be traded for. Are the Canucks really going to trade guys like Cory Schneider and Kevin Bieksa for someone who'll play 5 minutes a game come playoff time? Nope.

On defense, the Canucks have too many guys as well. Ehrhoff, Edler, Ballard, Hamhuis, Bieksa and Salo are all potential top-four D-men in the league. The Canucks have six of them. Even if they traded away Alberts and Rome, they wouldn't have the cap space for all six, so one of them has to go. I'm not sure who it'll be, except that it shouldn't be Bieksa. Or Edler, obviously. Or Hamhuis or Ballard. And of course we shouldn't trade Ehrhoff. And the Canucks are always a better team with Salo, so they shouldn't trade him either. Should the Canucks go after a top-tier D-man? The very thought gives me a headache.

Of course, in goal the Canucks have assets they could part with as well. Luongo, obviously, is the goaltender Vancouver's going with. He, like Mike Gillis, is God. Since we don't know which defenseman the Canucks are going to send off, Cory Schneider is the most likely player on the team to be traded. He's going to be a starting NHL goaltender somewhere, and those don't grow on trees. The Lightning just went after Dwayne Roloson -- don't tell me there isn't a market for goalies. Really, though, even if the Canucks traded Schneider, and needed a backup in return, the backup's only job come playoff time is going to be to keep the bench warm and maybe make interesting faces to keep us entertained (in which case I vote for Pascal Leclaire). Still, just because the team doesn't need anything this season, I expect Schneider will remain the Canucks' backup till the off-season. What the Canucks especially don't need is a goaltender.

So what else is there, the Canucks could possibly want? The Canucks seem to have a full roster, plus one goaltender, one high-end D-man, and at least one top-six forward. With no holes, the only real roster move the Canucks could make is to upgrade. Swap all the excess assets and a guy like Samuelsson for someone like Jeff Carter (just for the sake of the argument -- I know Carter isn't going anywhere). Problem is, even if a team WAS willing to make that kind of deal, the Canucks don't have the cap space for it, so in order to manage a move like that, they'd have to create a hole in the lineup. What's the likelihood of Gillis making the team less complete just to get a little bit better at one position? Even if there were no risk of damaging the already killer chemistry of this team, I'd say it's still an unlikely scenario.

With a full roster, there's always picks and prospects, I suppose. But even there, there's a problem. Sure, hockeysfuture only has the Canucks ranked at No. 22 in the league when it comes to the strength of their prospect pool. So what? The site acknowledges that the main concern is the dropoff after the top 5 prospects of Cody Hodgson, Jordan Schroeder, Anton Rodin, Sergei Shirokov and Kevin Connauton. That's sorta true, although I'm not ready to discount Bill and Lee Sweatt, as well as Yann Sauve. Still, even if it's a 100 percent dead-on assessment of the Canucks' prospect pool, the Canucks still have at least three or four prospects who might deserve an NHL position, that they just don't have room for. It's a shame when a player like Hodgson can't earn a roster spot no matter how good he is, because the team's got too many players signed. Why would the Canucks trade valuable roster players just to put more prospects in that position?

And why would the Canucks want draft picks? True, you can never have too many, but that doesn't mean you trade roster players like Schneider for them. Most players aren't Phil Kessel and most GMs aren't Brian Burke -- it's unlikely that the Canucks will score two first rounders. Even if they did, a situation like the one in Toronto, where they wound up giving away a lottery pick, is rare. More likely, the picks are going to be the second half of the first round -- still good, but not amazing. From the 1990 to the 2005 drafts, only about three players in four play more than 100 NHL games. So in the best-case scenario, the Canucks trade guaranteed NHL players for 75% likelihood NHL players. Even if the Canucks' great drafting continues, at best they wind up with more prospects they don't have room on the team for. Why would the Canucks trade away roster players just to make the Manitoba Moose better?

Ultimately, something's going to happen. The Canucks can either keep a healthy Salo on IR, or make a trade, and something's going to come back the other way. Probably NHL-calibre defensemen, because Gillis is well-known for thinking you can't have enough NHL-calibre defensemen in the system come playoff time. Either way, the Canucks have extra parts that can fetch a good price, and it's a mystery* what will come back in return. Really, what do we want?

*It's a mystery to everyone but Gillis. Mike Gillis always has a plan, and like God's plan, it's often a mystery to mere mortals.